| IMPACT OF RESOLUTION ON RAIN FORECASTS The advances in mesoscale
NWP models, such as the Navy's COAMPS, can provide forecasters with useful
local scale weather conditions that are not shown or well depicted in
global or coarse mesh mesoscale model products. Figures 1, 2, and 3 are
shown to demonstrate the additional information that can be gained through
use of the finer grid size nested COAMPS forecasts. This sequence of 24
hr cumulative precipitation forecasts for 54,18, and 6km model grid size
illustrates the increasing information available on orographically
enhanced rainfall amounts and localization of the precipitation maximum.
This rainfall event occurred during the 24 hour period of 011100Z to
011200Z. The precipitation maximum occurred on the upslope side of the San
Garbiel Mtns north of Los Angeles under a strong southerly flow in advance
of a vigorous winter cold front. A leeside rain shadow over the high
desert area north of the Mtns is also shown in the 18km forecast. Note
that the amount of forecast precipitation increases from 2-4 inches in the
54km forecast to 4-6 inches in the 18 and 6km. Also note that the area of
maximum precipitation becomes much more localized in the 6km data as
compared to the 54 and 18km depictions. |