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NRL Monterey, Marine Meteorology Division
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SoCal - COAMPS Precipitation Tutorial

Click thumbnails to view original full-sized images.

Introduction

Fig 1, COAMPS 54 KM 24 HR PRECIP FCSTFig 2, COAMPS 18 KM 24 HR PRECIP FCSTFig 3, COAMPS 6 KM 24 HR PRECIP FCST
INTRO_gp.precip.1.2001011100.t24.gif thumbnail INTRO_gp.precip.2.2001011100.t24.gif thumbnail INTRO_gp.precip.3.2001011100.t24.gif thumbnail
IMPACT OF RESOLUTION ON RAIN FORECASTS

The advances in mesoscale NWP models, such as the Navy's COAMPS, can provide forecasters with useful local scale weather conditions that are not shown or well depicted in global or coarse mesh mesoscale model products. Figures 1, 2, and 3 are shown to demonstrate the additional information that can be gained through use of the finer grid size nested COAMPS forecasts. This sequence of 24 hr cumulative precipitation forecasts for 54,18, and 6km model grid size illustrates the increasing information available on orographically enhanced rainfall amounts and localization of the precipitation maximum. This rainfall event occurred during the 24 hour period of 011100Z to 011200Z. The precipitation maximum occurred on the upslope side of the San Garbiel Mtns north of Los Angeles under a strong southerly flow in advance of a vigorous winter cold front. A leeside rain shadow over the high desert area north of the Mtns is also shown in the 18km forecast. Note that the amount of forecast precipitation increases from 2-4 inches in the 54km forecast to 4-6 inches in the 18 and 6km. Also note that the area of maximum precipitation becomes much more localized in the 6km data as compared to the 54 and 18km depictions.

Background

Fig 4 COAMPS 54 KM 12 HR 850MB FORECASTFig 5 GOES-10 IR 01/11/12Z
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Fig 4 shows the COAMPS 12HR 850mb fcst height, wind and relative humidity at the mid-time of the 24hr cumulative precipitation forecast. The strong moist southerly flow up over the San Garbiel Mtns is very evident. Figure 5 is a GOES-10 IR image for 11/12Z showing the strong frontal band over the area of interest.

Advantages

Progressively finer meshed COAMPS forecasts of orographically enhanced precipitation provides increasing details on both amounts and spatial patterns. This additional detail could be of critical importance to the proper planning for, and warning of, local flooding.


Author: Ron Englebretson
Last Updated: Wed Dec 18 07:55:26 2002
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