Introduction

Tropical cyclone (TC) formation is one of the least understood topics of tropical meteorology. Research indicates that approximately 80% of all TCs form in or just poleward of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and monsoon trough (Gray, 1968). Most of the remainder (about 10%) form from disturbances embedded in the easterly trade wind flow near the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). While the advent of satellite imagery has provided a wealth of data to aid research on this topic, it has also lessened the need for short range forecasting of TC formation. Nevertheless, predicting formation remains an important subject.

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Chapter 3