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What is MEDEX?

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Definition: MEDEX [MEDiterranean EXpert system] is a software package which uses artificial intelligence technology to predict the onset, continuation and cessation of specific gale-force wind events (wind speeds greater than 34 knots or 17 meters per second) throughout various regions within the Mediterranean Sea (see MEDEX winds). MEDEX uses expert system methods to represent the expertise of a meteorologist/forecaster with 25 years of experience in the Mediterranean, and fuzzy set methods to deal with the uncertainty and imprecision inherent in the expression of this type of knowledge.

Requirements: To implement MEDEX, the user needs synoptic information furnished from surface pressure and 500 mb height forecast or analysis charts which covers the European/Mediterranean domain. Typically, model output such as from NOGAPS, NORAPS, COAMPS are the standard sources of such information. In addition, the user would need only basic synoptic skills such as measuring surface pressure values, and identifying features such as surface highs, lows, troughs, and 500 mb ridges and troughs.

Why MEDEX? The Mediterranean region is one of the most challenging forecast regions, mainly because it is surrounded by complex mountainous topography. Although atmospheric model prediction systems and satellite-sensed data provide a picture of synoptic conditions at forecast time, they are only part of a forecast "toolkit" that MEDEX enhances. In the Navy's regional forecast office in Rota, Spain, forecasting hazardous winds is of primary concern, requiring an experience level that is developed with multiple years of experience. Unfortunately, typical Navy "tours-of-duty" range only from 2 to 4 years. Given these problems, MEDEX was designed as:

  1. A forecast tool: MEDEX provides probabilities of specific gale-force wind events to supplement the forecaster's decision-making process
  2. Educational tool: MEDEX was developed under the guidance and expertise of a weather forecaster with over 25 years of experience in the Mediterranean. That experience is accessible by users through various help and explanation utilities as well as this tutorial within the MEDEX package. In addition, the interactive input-output feature within the user interface allows the user to immediately view how changing a particular synoptic parameter impacts the forecast. As a result, it is expected that user "spin-up" times in Mediterranean forecasting would be greatly reduced through the use of MEDEX.
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