Definition: MEDEX [MEDiterranean EXpert system] is
a software package which uses artificial
intelligence technology to predict the onset,
continuation and cessation of specific gale-force
wind events (wind speeds greater than 34 knots or
17 meters per second) throughout various regions
within the Mediterranean Sea (see MEDEX winds).
MEDEX uses expert system methods to represent the
expertise of a meteorologist/forecaster with 25
years of experience in the Mediterranean, and fuzzy set methods to
deal with the uncertainty and imprecision
inherent in the expression of this type of
knowledge. Requirements:
To implement MEDEX, the user needs synoptic
information furnished from surface pressure and
500 mb height forecast or analysis charts which
covers the European/Mediterranean domain.
Typically, model output such as from NOGAPS,
NORAPS, COAMPS are the standard sources of such
information. In addition, the user would need
only basic synoptic skills such as measuring
surface pressure values, and identifying features
such as surface highs, lows, troughs, and 500 mb
ridges and troughs.
Why MEDEX? The
Mediterranean region is one of the most
challenging forecast regions, mainly because it
is surrounded by complex mountainous
topography. Although atmospheric model
prediction systems and satellite-sensed data
provide a picture of synoptic conditions at
forecast time, they are only part of a forecast
"toolkit" that MEDEX enhances. In the
Navy's regional forecast office in Rota, Spain,
forecasting hazardous winds is of primary
concern, requiring an experience level that is
developed with multiple years of experience.
Unfortunately, typical Navy
"tours-of-duty" range only from 2 to 4
years. Given these problems, MEDEX was designed
as:
- A forecast tool: MEDEX provides
probabilities of specific gale-force wind
events to supplement the forecaster's
decision-making process
- Educational tool: MEDEX was
developed under the guidance and
expertise of a weather forecaster with
over 25 years of experience in the
Mediterranean. That experience is
accessible by users through various help
and explanation utilities as well as this
tutorial within the MEDEX package. In
addition, the interactive input-output
feature within the user interface allows
the user to immediately view how changing
a particular synoptic parameter impacts
the forecast. As a result, it is expected
that user "spin-up" times in
Mediterranean forecasting would be
greatly reduced through the use of MEDEX.
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