MEDEX Output

MEDEX is an assistant in the forecasting (or nowcasting) of gale-force wind conditions for seven specific wind types in the Mediterranean. As a forecasting aid, MEDEX outputs an estimate of the probability (%) of the onset (or continuation) or cessation of gale-force events based upon user-provided inputs. The forecast period begins at the time of the forecast (at "Forecast time" listed on the Time Display) and is effective up to 12 hr after that time. Definitions for these three conditions are as follows:

Onset: The gale-force wind event will start during the forecast period. A specific description (click here) for onset conditions is presented for all wind types.

Continuation: Gale-force winds will occur/continue during the forecast period.

Cessation: The gale-force conditions will cease during the forecast period.

NOTE: The output values only provide information about the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of a gale-force event. MEDEX does not predict the strength of that particular wind. For example, a 55% probability for the onset of a gale-force mistral implies favorable conditions for the onset of a gale-force mistral; a 95% probability does not imply any wind speed stronger than gale-force.

If two 500 mb flow types have been selected, a probability is provided for selected winds for both 500 mb types.

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The diagrams below depict how values are meant to be interpreted for onset and cessation of gale force winds for the forecast period.

Finally, the forecast values are color-coded to indicate their sensitivity to changes in the input values (see figure below). The colors range from green, indicating the least sensitivity to incremental changes, to yellow, corresponding to moderate levels of sensitivity, to red, which is most sensitive to changes to input. In the case of the Bora--Aegean Sea below, green indicates that the 11% probability value will not significantly change with slight variations in user input values. There is a higher level of sensitivity to input changes associated with the Mistral probability (yellow values); finally, the user should be aware that large variations in probability may result when all of the user input parameters vary by a small amount, as in the case of the Sirocco probabilities below.